
1/10/07 Project
Team Conference Call
Preliminary Data Summary
1
Proposed
Hydro Generation Projections for Work
Plan Economic Modeling
o30 Year
Scenario
oBase Case- First 30 years (1967-1996) from the last 40 (1967-2006)
years of operational data
available from the Corps; this includes 6 drought years and the two wettest
years on record 1978 and 1993.
Average annual generation = 10.265 billion KWh
oWet Scenario-Years 1967-1976
repeated 3 times = Average annual generation = 12. 068 billion KWh
oDry Scenario-Years 1998-2007
repeated 3 times. Average annual generation = 7.838 billion KWh
oSingle Year 2011 Scenario
oBase Case-The Corps currently has median, lower decile and lower
quartile projections through
2011. This 2011 median number will be
used to identify a year with comparable total year hydropower generation for use as the 2011 base
case.
oWet Scenario-The Corps will
generate an upper decile simulation that can be used for the 2011 Wet Scenario.
A year with a comparable total year hydropower generation will be used for the wet scenario run.
oDry Scenario-Modify
the lower decile projection currently run for 2011, by adding a low decile year (15.5 MAF) in at 2010 to minimize the "trend
back to normal" typically encountered in five year runs. A year with comparable total year
hydropower generation will be used for the dry scenario run.