1/10/07 Project Team Conference Call
Preliminary Data Summary
1
Proposed Hydro Generation Projections for Work Plan Economic Modeling
o30 Year Scenario
oBase Case- First 30 years (1967-1996) from the last 40 (1967-2006) years of operational data available from the Corps; this includes 6 drought years and the two wettest years on record 1978 and 1993. Average annual generation = 10.265 billion KWh oWet Scenario-Years 1967-1976 repeated 3 times = Average annual generation = 12. 068 billion KWh oDry Scenario-Years 1998-2007 repeated 3 times. Average annual generation = 7.838 billion KWh
oSingle Year 2011 Scenario
oBase Case-The Corps currently has median, lower decile and lower quartile projections through 2011.  This 2011 median number will be used to identify a year with comparable total year hydropower generation for use as the 2011 base case. oWet Scenario-The Corps will generate an upper decile simulation that can be used for the 2011 Wet Scenario.  A year with a comparable total year hydropower generation will be used for the wet scenario run. oDry Scenario-Modify the lower decile projection currently run for 2011, by adding a low decile year (15.5 MAF) in at 2010 to minimize the "trend back to normal" typically encountered in five year runs. A year with comparable total year hydropower generation will be used for the dry scenario run.